Will there be a US recession before the end of 2022?

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resolved Jan 1

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This market will resolve "YES" if at least some main stream media outlets report a US recession.

Jul 18, 6:14pm:

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Global Macro

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Recessions are frequently backdated. If you're asking whether we're in a recession in 2022 you won't be able to call it "no" until at least the second half of '23.

In some ways, the market rules here are less safe for me, but I stand by this comment:

>It’s possible, but for now, incomes, employment, and consumption seem too strong. See also this r/badeconomics mod comment on Reddit.

predictedYES

Made some related questions with more concrete definitions.

It’s not an official recession unless the quantity of crack smoked by Hunter and uppers they inject into Joe goes down. Verdict: No Recession.

A recession isn't officially reported until well after it begins.

nearly 3:1 odds feel pretty good to me; "recession" has a specific definition and it's not "the market sucks and I hate it :("

@Adam the fact that the resolution criterium is that "at least some main stream media outlets report a US recession" might influence peoples predictions.

@Adam the specific definition is "two consecutive quarters of negative growth", which we HAVE met. Isn't stopping a bunch of hemming and hawing in the media about how "this time is different", though.

predictedYES

@MattP That isn't actually the official definition - the official definition is if a group of economists (at the National Bureau of Economic Research) determines it is a recession. https://www.npr.org/2022/07/28/1113649843/gdp-2q-economy-2022-recession-two-quarters

predictedYES

They're likely to determine it's a recession, but it usually takes several months for the data to come in and be analyzed and for them to make an official determination.

@MattP @jack I think the standard ought to be something that can be applied to any economy. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is universally applicable. That is the standard I am using for this market https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-chinaa-economy-enter-a-recessi. It might make sense to have a notion page that is constantly being updated with new standards for things like this so it can be easy for market creators and bettors alike.

@BTE You can use whatever standard you want in a market resolution, but I'm just talking about official US policy. And also, the standard the NBER uses is closer to "several months of negative growth", as opposed to "two quarters" - it just happens that several months is approximately two quarters. There are examples of two quarters of negative US GDP growth that were not determined to be a recession.

predictedYES

@BTE if that's the standard, we are in one. Jack isn't wrong though, at least in terms of what the US govt uses (which is indeed a more wishy washy "if this panel of experts says so"). My comment was related to what the specific definition Adam was referring to is.

predictedNO

@MattP "a defined panel of experts says so" is just as concrete a standard as "2 quarters of negative growth", arguably moreso (you can argue about whether the statistics accurately captured reality; it's much harder to argue about whether some guy who says "the economy is in a recession" said the economy is in a recession.

predictedYES

@Adam sure, but the problem is said panel of experts rarely calls the recession until well after it starts or has happened. You can't rely on them to judge, by the end of 2022, if the US entered a recession in 2022. @jack's market that closes at the end of 2023 is the kind of thing you have to do if you're trying to rely on that panel.

predictedNO

@MattP I mean, I'm making the argument for betting "no", not the argument for why this definition (or this market) is good at telling you whether there's a recession in the platonic sense.