This market will resolve "YES" if at least some main stream media outlets report a US recession.
Jul 18, 6:14pm:
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In some ways, the market rules here are less safe for me, but I stand by this comment:
>It’s possible, but for now, incomes, employment, and consumption seem too strong. See also this r/badeconomics mod comment on Reddit.
@MattP "a defined panel of experts says so" is just as concrete a standard as "2 quarters of negative growth", arguably moreso (you can argue about whether the statistics accurately captured reality; it's much harder to argue about whether some guy who says "the economy is in a recession" said the economy is in a recession.
@Adam sure, but the problem is said panel of experts rarely calls the recession until well after it starts or has happened. You can't rely on them to judge, by the end of 2022, if the US entered a recession in 2022. @jack's market that closes at the end of 2023 is the kind of thing you have to do if you're trying to rely on that panel.
@MattP I mean, I'm making the argument for betting "no", not the argument for why this definition (or this market) is good at telling you whether there's a recession in the platonic sense.