Will there be a US recession before the end of 2022?
54%
chance

This market will resolve "YES" if at least some main stream media outlets report a US recession.

Jul 18, 6:14pm:

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yaboi69 avatar
yaboi69
bought Ṁ0 of YES

In some ways, the market rules here are less safe for me, but I stand by this comment:

>It’s possible, but for now, incomes, employment, and consumption seem too strong. See also this r/badeconomics mod comment on Reddit.

jack avatar
Jack
is predicting YES at 71%
jack avatar
Jack
is predicting YES at 71%

Made some related questions with more concrete definitions.

Gigacasting avatar
It’s not an official recession unless the quantity of crack smoked by Hunter and uppers they inject into Joe goes down. Verdict: No Recession.
JiSK avatar
JiSK
bought Ṁ10 of NO
A recession isn't officially reported until well after it begins.
Adam avatar
Adam
bought Ṁ25 of NO
nearly 3:1 odds feel pretty good to me; "recession" has a specific definition and it's not "the market sucks and I hate it :("
Donald avatar
@Adam the fact that the resolution criterium is that "at least some main stream media outlets report a US recession" might influence peoples predictions.
MattP avatar
Matt P
bought Ṁ50 of YES
@Adam the specific definition is "two consecutive quarters of negative growth", which we HAVE met. Isn't stopping a bunch of hemming and hawing in the media about how "this time is different", though.
jack avatar
Jack
is predicting YES at 84%
@MattP That isn't actually the official definition - the official definition is if a group of economists (at the National Bureau of Economic Research) determines it is a recession. https://www.npr.org/2022/07/28/1113649843/gdp-2q-economy-2022-recession-two-quarters
jack avatar
Jack
is predicting YES at 84%
They're likely to determine it's a recession, but it usually takes several months for the data to come in and be analyzed and for them to make an official determination.
BTE avatar
@MattP @jack I think the standard ought to be something that can be applied to any economy. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is universally applicable. That is the standard I am using for this market https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-chinaa-economy-enter-a-recessi. It might make sense to have a notion page that is constantly being updated with new standards for things like this so it can be easy for market creators and bettors alike.
jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ50 of YES
@BTE You can use whatever standard you want in a market resolution, but I'm just talking about official US policy. And also, the standard the NBER uses is closer to "several months of negative growth", as opposed to "two quarters" - it just happens that several months is approximately two quarters. There are examples of two quarters of negative US GDP growth that were not determined to be a recession.
MattP avatar
Matt P
is predicting YES at 89%
@BTE if that's the standard, we are in one. Jack isn't wrong though, at least in terms of what the US govt uses (which is indeed a more wishy washy "if this panel of experts says so"). My comment was related to what the specific definition Adam was referring to is.
Adam avatar
Adam
is predicting NO at 89%

@MattP "a defined panel of experts says so" is just as concrete a standard as "2 quarters of negative growth", arguably moreso (you can argue about whether the statistics accurately captured reality; it's much harder to argue about whether some guy who says "the economy is in a recession" said the economy is in a recession.

MattP avatar
Matt P
is predicting YES at 71%

@Adam sure, but the problem is said panel of experts rarely calls the recession until well after it starts or has happened. You can't rely on them to judge, by the end of 2022, if the US entered a recession in 2022. @jack's market that closes at the end of 2023 is the kind of thing you have to do if you're trying to rely on that panel.

Adam avatar
Adam
is predicting NO at 62%

@MattP I mean, I'm making the argument for betting "no", not the argument for why this definition (or this market) is good at telling you whether there's a recession in the platonic sense.

bcongdon avatar
Ben
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Related market: https://manifold.markets/OliverS/will-there-be-a-recession-in-the-us