Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
17
1kṀ3314
2029
10%
chance

Background: Signal, owned by the Signal Foundation, currently uses end-to-end encryption for all messages, meaning only the sender and recipient can read message contents. The Signal Foundation cannot access the actual content of encrypted messages in the current version of their software.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if, before January 20, 2029, one of the listed Internet news sites reports that The Signal Foundation has provided the (decrypted) content of at least one user message to a US law enforcement agency. "Content" refers to the actual text, images, videos, or other media sent in messages, not to metadata such as user names, IP addresses, or timestamps.


Internet news sites: 404 Media, Ars Technica, Business Insider, The Markup, ProPublica, The Register, TechCrunch, The Verge.

  • Update 9 Jan 2025 (From AI summary of comment) If the sites report on a backdoor but do not report that it was used to provide decrypted content to US law enforcement, the resolution will be No.

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2mo

Personally I hold NO on this one because Signal does not have another line of business that a government could put pressure on, the way that other encrypted messaging providers do

related:

https://manifold.markets/DonMarti7bd2/will-apple-provide-the-content-of-a

https://manifold.markets/DonMarti7bd2/will-meta-provide-the-content-of-a

3mo

Do they have to provide the message decrypted? What if they're forced to install a backdoor but don't actively send anything?

3mo

@WilliamGunn Since there are already traders on this question I'm going to change it as little as possible.

I included (decrypted) in the resolution criteria to clarify.

I will leave the actual law enforcement story resolution criteria as is. (The reported existence of a backdoor is a different question. If someone wants to make it I'll link to it). If the sites report on a backdoor but don't report that it was used the question will resolve to no.

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