Judged solely by me, informed by things like news stories, Google Trends, influence, etc. Doesn't necessarily have to be politically relevance. If, for instance, Kevin McCarthy is invited to speak at the GOP Convention, that will go a long way towards him possibly winning. If Santos lands on a reality show, that will help him, etc. etc. etc.

-Kevin McCarthy has a lot of friends, and a war chest. He's more likely to be at least a minor player for a while.

-George Santos has an upcoming trial and is far more entertaining. His future is much more volatile, and he could easily fade away quickly.

If I judge them both to be completely and totally irrelevant on election day 2024, SANTOS will win bc it'll be a much harder fall for Kevin.