Villages in two Kenyan counties were randomly assigned to receive (or not) about US$0.75 per adult per day for 2 or 12 years. Transfers began in 2018.
At the bottom of above link is the pre-analysis plan. Inflation defined as consumer price index defined as the weighted sum of the prices of commodities sold in local markets (market survey) weighted by control group expenditure (household survey, Section B).
2023 working paper: https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~pniehaus/papers/UBI_main_paper.pdf
If the "Long Term arm" has significantly higher inflation (as defined by the PAP) than the Control group, then the market resolves Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves No.
Note that if the p-value is above .05 on this test, then the results will be considered insignificant and the market will resolve No.
The market will resolve based on the first set of results released by the authors on inflation that purports to be running the tests outlined in the PAP.