UBI Policy Levels:
Utopian: Equal to or greater than the top 90% annual income in 2023.
Median: Equal to the median national income in 2023.
Minimum Wage: Equal to the legal minimum wage in 2023.
Resolution Criteria:
Resolves positively for the first universal basic income (UBI) scenario that most closely matches the policy officially adopted in the US or UK (after a 'resolves after' condition is met).
Buying power matters, so the incomes will be inflation adjusted.
Resolves after:
A major economic body (such as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics or the UK Office for National Statistics) confirms that more than 25% of job losses in a given year are due to automation and AI technologies in the US or UK.
If no UBI policy is enacted by Jan 1, 2040, the market resolves for 'No UBI'.
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Are these classifications anchored to the 2023 numbers or will they be inflation adjusted?
Being ignorant of what UBI means, this market feels ambitious, but looking at the UBI tag other markets seem to assign the acronym to Universal Basic Income.
after the above condition is met.
What condition? Are the senarios also conditions?
Resolves when:
A major economic body (such as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics or the UK Office for National Statistics) confirms that more than 25% of job losses in a given year are due to automation and AI technologies in the US or UK.
How does job loss trigger resolution if the market is about policy enactment? Or is there some convolution with an AI job market resolution criteria?
@ShitakiIntaki Thanks for pointing this out. I've updated the description to be more clear. It resolves after job losses for the first policy that most closely matches one of the options in this market.
The incomes will be inflation adjusted, and UBI stands for universal basic income.
@AJama is there some sort of dependency between UBI and automation/AI technologies?
Right now my tenuous grasp of UBI is it is a supplemental salary for nothing, and the critiques of it are the cost to provide it. I am trying to imagine what would happen if a UBI policy was solely/fully funded through sales taxes, and the implications for the buying power of any UBI monies received.
Maybe the dependency between UBI and automation/AI tech is that UBI would be funded via some sort of tax on automation/AI to mitigate the attributed displacement of workers from the workforce?
@ShitakiIntaki UBI was initially proposed as an answer to unemployment from automation and AI, as far as I know. The basic concept is that everyone in society is given a wage, whether they are working or not.
The idea is that the amount of wealth produced by AGI and automation, in the near future, will be so vast that it should technically be trivial to supplement a UBI policy with the taxed returns. A lot of people think UBI is a given, whereas I'm more sceptical that it will be implemented. So I created this question to see what people think will happen.
@ian if there is a policy proposal just before 2040 then we can wait for it to get passed. I'll wait for a maximum of 5 years after 2040, but probably much less than that (1-5 years). I'll update on this closer to the time if necessary.