Which UBI policy will be adopted after mass unemployment due to AI?
19
1kṀ522
2040
71%
No UBI
54%
Universal median income
23%
Universal minimum wage income
17%
Universal utopian income

UBI Policy Levels:

  • Utopian: Equal to or greater than the top 90% annual income in 2023.

  • Median: Equal to the median national income in 2023.

  • Minimum Wage: Equal to the legal minimum wage in 2023.

Resolution Criteria:

  • Resolves positively for the first universal basic income (UBI) scenario that most closely matches the policy officially adopted in the US or UK (after a 'resolves after' condition is met).

  • Buying power matters, so the incomes will be inflation adjusted.

Resolves after:

  • A major economic body (such as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics or the UK Office for National Statistics) confirms that more than 25% of job losses in a given year are due to automation and AI technologies in the US or UK.

  • If no UBI policy is enacted by Jan 1, 2040, the market resolves for 'No UBI'.

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