Basic
447
234k
Nov 6
28%
Biden never drops out
20%
July 22
14%
July 21
8%
July 20
6%
July 24
6%
July 25
5%
July 23
2%
Other
1.9%
July 30
1.2%
July 29
1.1%
July 26

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race on the specified date.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden and/or his official/legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ200 Biden never drops out YES

Just to be sure: Joe Biden dying without formally dropping out counts as "dropping out" for the purposes of this market, right?

bought Ṁ120 Biden never drops out YES

Based on the way this is written I would say no, that would count as him not dropping out.

Why would Biden drop out on July 15? That seems nonsensical.

If I were him, why not let the Republicans waste four days of earned media attacking me, and then drop out and all the attacks are wasted?

maybe people think he will during this interview but other that im not sure why, it seems way too high.

bought Ṁ806 Answer #t8ak1ryi4v NO

Please resolve all days before July 8 to no.

On dependent MC it’s impossible to resolve individual options early

Oh, damn

What if he doesn't want to step down but is removed via 25th Amendment or by the DNC? Does that invalidate this market or does it resolve as the date that happens?

Resolves on the date that happens

bought Ṁ100 Answer #t8ak1ryi4v NO

25th Amendment is about his current term as President, that's separate from whether he's running in the upcoming election.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #t8ak1ryi4v NO

@DismalScientist What's the significance of July 12?

bought Ṁ50 Answer #t8ak1ryi4v YES

@DismalScientist Surely you mean "on the specified day" rather than "by the specified time"? Seeing as how the choices are linked...

Yes, just updated

bought Ṁ500 Answer #8gxu5kpswa YES

It's either this week or never.

bought Ṁ200 Answer #0m5skg7erv NO

Can we start resolving days as NO?

I just tried to do this but could not figure out how to. Are you sure this is possible?

What if die?

If you die this market should be your last concern :)

Thank you for your response. What if Biden dies?

I would count that as dropping out

More related questions