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It's already mathematically guaranteed. Not a surprise that it happened a few days before the closing date: "The Market" was mathematically guaranteed less than an hour before the final day began, but this one was open for much longer, so the mathematical guarantee happened earlier.

I think this is resolving the same way as
https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-one-side-be-guaranteed-to-win
i.e. it asks whether one side is guaranteed to win at the start of the day when the market closes (so 18 hours before close, I think)

@FlorisvanDoorn That market's description is extremely different from this one's. Why would you assume they're resolving the same way?

@IsaacKing Because the title is the same and that is an actual valid way to interpret the title in such a way that the market is not trivial (maybe it's the most correct interpretation, since it's closing date and not closing time).

@FlorisvanDoorn Trooo it's the ssame way

@swiftielover spot on @FlorisvanDoorn

@swiftielover That would be a blatantly incorrect resolution. This market asks a very clear question, and doesn't say anything about there being an arbitrary 1 day restriction.

@IsaacKing English is not my native language, but as I understand it, "date" refers to a specific day. So "before a date X" refers to before the start of day X. The fact that the closing time is not at the start of day X is irrelevant to this formulation. (I'm not necessarily saying that this is the unambiguous unique reading, just a valid reading).

@FlorisvanDoorn Oh, hmm, that's an interesting reading. Ok, as long as the "in the eastern time zone" has always been in the description and wasn't added in later, I'll accept that.

@IsaacKing It definitely was there 1 day ago when you posted your first message.

...Isn't this guaranteed to resolve YES?

How long before it’s closing date? It should be pretty clear a minute before, what about a day? A week?