This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any previously classified files pertaining to the assassination of John Fitzgerald Kennedy by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count.
The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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@HillaryClinton The market is still open. Ping the creator. If the market closes, ask the mods to review it.
If you wanted to make this an argument about if anything substantial would be declassified, there is a market for that.
https://manifold.markets/AmericanPirate/trump-declassifies-major-informatio
@HillaryClinton sure, but if the question is "declassifies files" but the files he released were already declassified, only with words here and there unredacted in the new release, do they count as "declassified files" or just lightly amended pages?
@HillaryClinton I'm not suggesting changing the rules, though. I haven't had the time to look deeper into specifics myself but as I understand it (and again, only from what I know so far as I type this, and I'll update when I have the full scope) there aren't new files only newly unredacted inconsequential words here and there. is that the case?
so I'm not suggesting "changing the rules" or even pushing anything to begin with, just having an open discussion on interpretations as the market isn't more thoroughly defined - simply, "declassifies any previously classified files." in a previous administration a press release from the WH would perhaps be reliable and trustworthy, but as we've seen in other contexts (Epstein, for example) announcements don't necessarily align with the truth - there they also "released" old information and initially called it a promise kept. I'm curious what the creator's threshold is for declassifying files as opposed to minor un-redactions on files already released by previous administration(s).
@shankypanky he declassified previously classified docs.
New information, no matter how small, is available
@shankypanky No completely new files at all, as far as I'm aware; but some of the files released have less redactions than ever before. The Polymarket for this, which the rules here are copy-pasted from, has already resolved as Yes. Polymarket clarified that it was enough to count.
@Mana hm okay. the market description doesn't say it resolves in line with Polymarket, though, so I'm not sure that's a reliable indicator? of course, WH announcements also aren't entirely based in reality these days lol
to what degree are there "fewer redactions"? anything that declassifies real information?
@shankypanky That's a matter of opinion I guess. Probably not any bombshells, this release is a bit of a nothingburger, as expected. But here's one example of a rereleased file with fewer redactions:
2025 version:
https://www.archives.gov/files/research/jfk/releases/2025/0318/104-10194-10019.pdf
2023 version:
https://www.archives.gov/files/research/jfk/releases/2023/104-10194-10019.pdf
@Mana I guess it's up to the creator but idk that a few words here and there could count as declassifying the files. personally, I wouldn't count that unless there was something notable that was declassified and previously obscured. I haven't had a chance to look at more of it though just yet.
