Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if a military conflict meeting the definition of World War 3 begins on or after November 19, 2026, the release date of GTA VI. Resolution is based on whether major powers (typically defined as permanent UN Security Council members or NATO members) engage in direct military conflict. The market resolves NO if no such conflict occurs by a specified end date. Resolution sources may include official government statements, major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC), UN declarations, or NATO announcements.

Background

GTA VI is scheduled to release on November 19, 2026, after delays that extended the development timeline. The question uses the game's release as a temporal reference point rather than implying any causal relationship between the two events.

Considerations

This market is inherently speculative and depends on geopolitical developments that are difficult to predict. The definition of "World War 3" itself may be subject to interpretation—traders should consider what threshold of conflict would qualify

This description was generated by AI.

• Update 2026-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if World War 3 starts before GTA VI's release (November 19, 2026), not after as the title suggests. This is a reversal of the original question's intent.

• Update 2026-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If World War 3 has not occurred by the market close date (December 31, 2026), the market will resolve NO.