Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by August 01, 2025, credible evidence from authoritative sources indicates that Iran possesses operational nuclear weapons. Such evidence may include official statements from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), confirmations from the United Nations Security Council, or verified reports from reputable news organizations. If no such evidence is available by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of June 2025, Iran has significantly advanced its nuclear program. The IAEA reported that Iran has accumulated approximately 409 kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity, nearing weapons-grade levels. Additionally, Iran has developed advanced centrifuges, enhancing its enrichment capabilities. Despite these developments, both U.S. intelligence assessments and IAEA reports indicate that Iran has not resumed a formal nuclear weapons program since it was halted in 2003. However, the recent escalation in regional tensions, including military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, has raised concerns about potential shifts in Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Considerations

• Verification Challenges: Determining the exact status of Iran's nuclear capabilities is complex due to limited access for international inspectors and potential clandestine activities.

• Regional Dynamics: Recent military actions, such as the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, may influence Iran's strategic decisions regarding nuclear armament.

• International Responses: Global diplomatic efforts and sanctions could impact Iran's nuclear trajectory, either deterring weaponization or prompting further development.

Traders should monitor official reports from the IAEA, statements from Iranian authorities, and credible news sources for updates on Iran's nuclear status leading up to the resolution date.