Will Jimmy Carter die in 2024?
🇺🇸 US PoliticsDeath marketsJimmy CarterNew Year's Resolutions 2024
Basic
110
Ṁ31k
Jan 1
49%
chance

Jimmy Carter is currently 99 years old and is currently in hospice care as of November 2023.

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/MartyDettmann/will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-when-thi
Possible Arbitrage opportunity: This market gives Carter a 46% chance to live another 19 weeks. My market gives Carter an 83% chance to outlive market resolution, the expected time for which is in 20 weeks.

Empirically, there is a more than 90-95% chance that he does.

bought Ṁ250 NO

@MrBrien Empirically, there is a 0% chance because he has never died in 2024 before.

predicts YES

@Deer I think this question should resolve at the end of 2024. Not Dec 31 2023 as it is now. Would you please update this?

predicts YES

@ClubmasterTransparent Oops, yeah I’ll fix that.

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