Will Jimmy Carter die in 2024?

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Jan 1

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Jimmy Carter is currently 99 years old and is currently in hospice care as of November 2023.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#Jimmy Carter

#Death markets

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

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https://twitter.com/timheidecker/status/1836601108862574899

@KevinBurke oh shit shit shit it's happening

/MartyDettmann/will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-when-thi
Possible Arbitrage opportunity: This market gives Carter a 46% chance to live another 19 weeks. My market gives Carter an 83% chance to outlive market resolution, the expected time for which is in 20 weeks.

Empirically, there is a more than 90-95% chance that he does.

bought Ṁ250 NO

@MrBrien Empirically, there is a 0% chance because he has never died in 2024 before.

predicts YES

@Deer I think this question should resolve at the end of 2024. Not Dec 31 2023 as it is now. Would you please update this?

predicts YES

@ClubmasterTransparent Oops, yeah I’ll fix that.

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