Will there be credible reports of major, successful IP theft against Anthropic by the end of 2023?

closes 2024

12%

chance

ALL

"Successful" meaning the fruits of the IP theft were deployed, monetized, or deliberately released publicly. The IP theft need not have happened in 2023.

AGI Information Security

Sort by:

Anonymouse

It feels like someone has some foreknowledge here?

Dean Valentineis predicting NO at 9%

@Anonymouse this is suddenly getting a lot of activity lol

Nick11235 bought Ṁ25 YES at 12% 🎁

Flan 🍮 bought Ṁ10 NO at 12%

tailcalled bought Ṁ20 YES from 10% to 12%

Eric Jang bought Ṁ10 NO at 10%

Semiotic Rivalry bought Ṁ20 YES from 9% to 10%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 9% 🤖

Harlan Stewart bought Ṁ100 NO from 11% to 10%

Harlan Stewart bought Ṁ100 NO at 11%

Harlan Stewart bought Ṁ100 NO from 12% to 11%

Hfdidiurht Idifhthdjdi bought Ṁ14 NO at 12%

Will bought Ṁ50 NO from 13% to 12%

cos created limit order for Ṁ15 NO at 13%

cos created limit order for Ṁ218 NO at 13%

cos filled limit order Ṁ150/Ṁ223 NO at 13% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ79/Ṁ100 NO at 15% (cancelled) 🤖

Nicholas Kross bought Ṁ50 YES from 12% to 16%

cos filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ2 NO at 15%

cos filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ3 NO at 14%

cos filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ6 NO at 13%

cos bought Ṁ179 YES at 12% 🎁

Anton bought Ṁ90 NO from 13% to 12%

Noya bought Ṁ66 YES at 13% 🎁

Peter Buyukliev bought Ṁ10 NO at 13%

Carson Gale bought Ṁ60 NO from 14% to 13%

Ian Philips bought Ṁ10 NO at 14%

Rahul Shah bought Ṁ5 YES at 14%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 14% (cancelled) 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 YES at 14% (cancelled) 🤖

Optimization Process bought Ṁ300 NO from 19% to 13%

Adom Hartell sold Ṁ5 YES at 19%

David Mathers bought Ṁ10 NO from 20% to 19%

Adom Hartell sold Ṁ3 YES at 20%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ41/Ṁ100 NO at 20% (cancelled) 🤖

Erick Ball bought Ṁ65 NO from 24% to 21%

Juri Chomé bought Ṁ50 NO from 26% to 24%

Henri Thunberg bought Ṁ65 NO from 29% to 26%

Alex Wilson sold Ṁ12 NO at 29%

Eli Lifland bought Ṁ10 NO at 29%

brwa bought Ṁ10 NO from 30% to 29%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 YES at 30% (cancelled) 🤖

Matt Reardon bought Ṁ150 NO from 41% to 27%

Tyler bought Ṁ20 NO from 44% to 41%

Alex Wilson bought Ṁ10 NO from 45% to 44%

Adom Hartell bought Ṁ20 YES from 41% to 45%

Adele Lopez sold Ṁ4 YES from 42% to 41%

zQ4Z82W bought Ṁ50 NO from 54% to 42%

Related markets

Alex K. Chen

Will there be a major cybersecurity incident in 2023? (major enough to be covered by the NYT)89%

Yoav

Will Google announce a significant hack/data breach in 2023?12%

Carson Gale

Will I experience financial loss due to identity theft by end of 2027?10%

Jon Simon

Will "Store Now Decrypt Later" attacks be responsible for the theft of >$1B of funds by 2030?26%

Carson Gale

In 2023, will there be a shift toward policy creation and automated abuse detection to prevent fraud before it happens and ensure repeat offenders are flagged and blocked?44%

Isaac

Will Manifold experience a serious security breach that compromises at least one user's personal data by the end of 2024?34%

uair01

Will there be a cyberbreach of a Dutch government organization in 2023?41%

Will we see a malicious LLM prompt injection attack by the end of 2023?66%

Braulio Valdivielso Martínez

Will there be a software security incident caused by the new .zip TLD before the end of 2024?48%

Carson Gale

Part 2: In 2023, will there be a virtual explosion of technological solutions to assist in the protection of the privacy interests of minors?14%

Zian Choy

By 2030, will there be credible claims that Mullvad VPN logs user activity?24%

uair01

Will a cloud service used by the Dutch government be hacked in 2023?25%

Franek Żak

Will the uber hacker be found before 2024?14%

Imuli

Will forms of encryption that prevent Internet services from spying on their users face restrictions in the United States during 2023?25%

Maximilian G

Will Bitwarden be hacked and have encrypted vaults be exposed in 2023?8%

Isaac

Will any encryption scheme suggested by the NSA's Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite be broken by April 2028?31%

Nom Moniker

Will there be a significant self-amplifying prompt injection spam incident before 2024?54%

Noa Nabeshima

Will I think that anyone looked at someone's reciprocity.io matches without their consent via access to the backend by 2030?4%

Carson Gale

In 2023, will more and more boards demand companies document their security readiness plans and emergency preparedness training for both cyber and physical threats?55%

Matt C. Wilson

Will another cloud-based password management service with >1 million users be hacked and have user password vaults stolen in 2023?31%

Related markets

Alex K. Chen

Will there be a major cybersecurity incident in 2023? (major enough to be covered by the NYT)89%

Yoav

Will Google announce a significant hack/data breach in 2023?12%

Carson Gale

Will I experience financial loss due to identity theft by end of 2027?10%

Jon Simon

Will "Store Now Decrypt Later" attacks be responsible for the theft of >$1B of funds by 2030?26%

Carson Gale

In 2023, will there be a shift toward policy creation and automated abuse detection to prevent fraud before it happens and ensure repeat offenders are flagged and blocked?44%

Isaac

Will Manifold experience a serious security breach that compromises at least one user's personal data by the end of 2024?34%

uair01

Will there be a cyberbreach of a Dutch government organization in 2023?41%

Will we see a malicious LLM prompt injection attack by the end of 2023?66%

Braulio Valdivielso Martínez

Will there be a software security incident caused by the new .zip TLD before the end of 2024?48%

Carson Gale

Part 2: In 2023, will there be a virtual explosion of technological solutions to assist in the protection of the privacy interests of minors?14%

Zian Choy

By 2030, will there be credible claims that Mullvad VPN logs user activity?24%

uair01

Will a cloud service used by the Dutch government be hacked in 2023?25%

Franek Żak

Will the uber hacker be found before 2024?14%

Imuli

Will forms of encryption that prevent Internet services from spying on their users face restrictions in the United States during 2023?25%

Maximilian G

Will Bitwarden be hacked and have encrypted vaults be exposed in 2023?8%

Isaac

Will any encryption scheme suggested by the NSA's Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite be broken by April 2028?31%

Nom Moniker

Will there be a significant self-amplifying prompt injection spam incident before 2024?54%

Noa Nabeshima

Will I think that anyone looked at someone's reciprocity.io matches without their consent via access to the backend by 2030?4%

Carson Gale

In 2023, will more and more boards demand companies document their security readiness plans and emergency preparedness training for both cyber and physical threats?55%

Matt C. Wilson

Will another cloud-based password management service with >1 million users be hacked and have user password vaults stolen in 2023?31%