Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty of more than 10 years in prison before 2030?
84%
chance

Market resolves to "Yes" if Sam Bankman Fried is sentenced by a judge in any jurisdiction to serve more than ten years in prison before 2030.

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ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

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@parafactual He is being villainized by many (I've dunked on him too), But also he's still pretty fucked and that hasn't decreased today. https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-sam-bankman-fried-receive-a-cr-1e81c88cf718

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingis predicting NO at 70%

Based and judicial-branch-still-works-pilled if this actually occurs.

Regime-simps be warned if they toss their golden boy donor aside this easily; all theories about Alameda and EA having pedophile logos and SBF being some anti-crypto plant seem mostly discredited by his clownish interviews.

Perhaps it really all was some midwit on uppers fooling VCs and paying off journos—made it look easy with the insider trading and constant embezzlement but his trading performance and business acumen fell out exactly at the (abysmally low) level revealed here http://measuringshadowsblog.blogspot.com/?m=1

“If you wrote a book you fucked up” and Second Amendment = Shakespeare = “sucks” aged about as well as expected

Charlie avatar
Charlie

Anyone care to elaborate on why this might be so low?

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ55 of NO

The NYT is somewhat soft on him, the FT showed a racist cartoon of CZ as the true villain, Tyler Cowen basically said he did a good thing (and got destroyed by his commenters for it, but Tyler’s always been an elite bootlicker and hated crypto so no surprises)

All to say: very possible they charge him in DC, and/or give him a sweetheart deal to day the right things and help kill crypto

Would expect a mostly rigged process in his favor, and not ten years

DeanValentine avatar
Dean Valentineis predicting YES at 26%

@Gigacasting None of those people you mentioned seem to be either prosecutors or judges. Would love to challenge bet you on this one.

ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty of more than 10 years in prison before 2030?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition