Question

Statista projects that in 2022, broiler chicken consumption will increase from 96.5 to 96.9 pounds per person, the smallet increase in a decade. At the time of writing, the 2022 figure is a projection based on data released in December 2021. This timeseries looks likely to be updated with data in 2023. This question asks whether, according to the latest data published by the linked source on September 2023, per-capita broiler chicken consumption will be at least 97.0 pounds per person in 2022 - if so, it resolves "yes", otherwise it resolves "no".

If the linked source is unavailable on the date 2023-September-01, the most recent web archive snapshot will be considered the resolution source.

Resolution details

This is also an experiment with self-resolving questions. The question will provisionally resolve to whatever outcome the market values more on the closing date. However, there is a mechanism to dispute this provisional resolution: if a user thinks it is in error, they can stake their preferred answer using a USD-pegged coin on https://realityeth.github.io/#!/question/0xe78996a233895be74a66f451f1019ca9734205cc-0xda4d8a5e2306927ee54252f93983594d51bc7bce7379105272e6ae9a650c7954 (note that this is on the gnosis chain, see https://docs.gnosischain.com/tools/wallets/ for connection instructions). The initial stake must be at least $1, and stakes can be contested by submitting a stake twice as large, and if no contest is made within 24 hours it resolves to the highest stake. Correct stakers claim their own stake back along with the stakes of incorrect stakers. If the contested stakes grow large enough (~800 USD at the time of writing/0.8 ETH), Reality.eth allows for backers to request arbitration at the Kleros court. In the kleros court, jurors are randomly selected from the pool of all participating individuals and vote on the correct answer.

If reality.eth is used, the market resolution will match the reality.eth resolution rather than the market price.

This is a kludgy appeal process, but as long as the correct answer can be confident of deploying enough capital to go to arbitration, I think it is difficult to attack. My hope is that this is enough to deter attacking the self-resolution mechanism in the first place and no-one has to use it. If it is successful, an integrated Kleros-style arbitration mechanism may help secure self-resolving questions. I may use the appeal process myself, if I think it is a good idea to do so.

If the price is exactly .50 for each, I will flip a coin and announce the tentative result.