Does not include meat substitutes or cell-cultured meat. A positive resolution requires 3+ articles from reputable news organizations that suggest that meat consumption has gone down by 50% or more between any period post-2022 to market close.
I will not be proactively searching for such articles. I will need to come across them organically or they can be commented on this market or sent to me via Twitter DM.
I believe it is unlikely that U.S. meat consumption will decline by 50% or more by 2040.
3 main reasons according to me:
1. A 2021 poll found only 1% of Americans planned to become vegetarian in the next 5 years (IFIC, 2021). While interest in plant-based meat is growing, most view it as a complement rather than a full substitute for animal meat.
2. The U.S. remains one of the highest per capita meat consuming countries, at over 100 kg per person in 2020 (OECD, 2022). Significant dietary shifts tend to occur slowly over generations, making a drastic 50%+ drop in just under two decades is highly improbable.
3. The meat industry is actively campaigning to defend meat consumption and is developing lower-cost production to curb the rise of plant-based alternatives.
Choi, J. (2022). Don't call it a veggie burger: Labeling plant-based meat divides producers and lawmakers. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/dont-call-veggie-burger-labeling-plant-based-meat-divides-producers-lawmaker-rcna51158
International Food Information Council [IFIC]. (2021). 2021 food and health survey. https://foodinsight.org/2021-food-and-health-survey/
OECD. (2022). Meat consumption. https://data.oecd.org/agroutput/meat-consumption.html