How many openly non-believing people will be elected to the US House or Senate in 2024?
9
10kṀ16k
resolved Jan 30
100%89%
3
1.4%
0
1.6%
1
4%
2
3%
4
1.5%
5 or more

A candidate qualifies if they openly state they don’t believe in God on or before Election Day. This includes atheists, agnostics, secular humanists, skeptics, rationalists, and the like.

“Culturally religious” people, such as secular Jews, may qualify if their disbelief in God is more likely than not (in my assessment). I'll do this on a case by case basis. If you have any questions on my assessment, ask before you trade, and I will clarify.

2024-08-31 update: I will consider Jamie Raskin to be a non-believer for the purposes of this prediction market. See my comment below for more details.

I expect to resolve the question as soon as elections are consistently called by major reputable media sources such as the AP, Reuters, and a majority of TV networks and major newspapers. If there is uncertainty, I will wait until the state certification process. If this drags out for some reason, we might have to wait until all relevant candidate are sworn in on Friday, January 3, 2025.

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