Will China attempt to seize Scarborough Shoal by end of May
20
Ṁ1kṀ3.8kresolved Jun 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
please request clarifications I will not bet
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ179 | |
| 2 | Ṁ69 | |
| 3 | Ṁ33 | |
| 4 | Ṁ15 | |
| 5 | Ṁ9 |
People are also trading
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
47% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2030?
55% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
9% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
39% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?
27% chance
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
15% chance
Will there be a cuban missile crisis level incident in the south china sea by end of 2027?
38% chance
Sort by:
@DavidFWatson may is over, there has been no major update here, and it can resolve NO.
(they've always occupied part of it, but in the comments there was clarification that they need to "seize it significantly more than they already have"—a quick news search reveals that there's been bluster but no substantive developments there)
I'm confused, hasn't it been occupied by China since 2012?
@TheAllMemeingEye That’s the kind of clarification question I was looking for!
Let’s say, seize it significantly more than they already have. I’ll clarify more if folks have specific questions (once I have time to do more research)
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
47% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2030?
55% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
9% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
39% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?
27% chance
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
15% chance
Will there be a cuban missile crisis level incident in the south china sea by end of 2027?
38% chance