Resolves YES if any of the following happens between market creation and 11:59pm ET on December 31, 2032:
Bankruptcy or shutdown. Anthropic files for Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 (or a foreign equivalent), or shuts down both its API and its consumer products.
Acquisition. Another company obtains majority voting control of Anthropic, or buys substantially all of its assets. A merger in which Anthropic is not the surviving parent company counts.
Reverse acquihire. Within any 12-month window, a single company both (a) signs a licensing deal with Anthropic or takes an equity stake of 25% or more, and (b) hires Anthropic's CEO or at least three of the cofounders listed below. This is the Meta/Scale AI (2025), Microsoft/Inflection (2024) and Google/Character.AI (2024) pattern.
Resolves NO otherwise. These do not count on their own: an IPO or direct listing, Anthropic acquiring other companies, minority investments by Amazon, Google or anyone else without a leadership move, cloud or reseller partnerships, ordinary staff turnover, or a change of CEO that is not part of a deal described in (3).
For (3), the cofounders are Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, Jared Kaplan, Sam McCandlish, Tom Brown, Chris Olah, Jack Clark and Ben Mann. Resolution relies on SEC filings, court records, company statements, or reporting by Reuters, Bloomberg, the WSJ or the FT.
Context: Gary Marcus argued in November 2026, ahead of Anthropic's IPO, that the company could fail, and John Gruber wrote that he would be surprised if it did not go out of business. Related markets with narrower criteria or earlier deadlines: still independent in 2030, acquired before the end of 2030, Amazon acquires or acquihires before 2029.
1,000