Will I still speed at the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 26

Today I had to take a 2-hour speed awareness course because I got caught going slightly over the speed limit (~15%). As u expect wasn't particularly useful. Showing the change in breaking distance at small increments of speed increases was interesting, but nothing new for me. They didn't present any statistics or models which is what actually would have convinced me.

I tend to go pretty fast on the motorway, especially at night if the roads are relatively empty.

In my mind, the risk-reward is worth it of how much time I save relative to my chance of an accident. I'm still quite sensible overall and am never an aggressive driver. I try to be efficient and go fast when it is safe to do so. There are other small considerations such as fuel economy with regards to cost (not a factor IMO) and pollution.

Resolves NO if by my own assessment, I've become a slower driver by the end of the year. I won't bet in this market to remain impartial.

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:


predicted NO


@HedShock While I'm in favor of safe driving and I'm sad to hear about your dad's accident, I think this sort of scary emotional-manipulationy kind of argument is a net negative to truthseeking conversations. I'm sure that David is already aware that many people get into accidents, so providing a personal anecdote and photograph of one doesn't provide any new information.

One thing you didn't mention (and I didn't see this mentioned scanning the comments but might have missed it) is the cost in terms of time and money of getting caught speeding. The traffic stop will cost you at least 10 minutes and ~$250, in addition to some hassle from dealing with the court system. That should be a factor you consider.

@father I'm in the UK and you don't really get pulled over for speeding (certainly not for the amounts and situations I tend to speed). But I agree that the risk of fine and getting points/taking an awareness course is time consuming.

But I think this just makes me more careful not to get caught lol.

@SirSalty I don't think I know anyone who drives the speed limit. It's a very weird system where there's a law everyone casually breaks every day.

@Joshua You casually break more laws than that every day. Most you're just unaware of.

predicted NO

Wait I just noticed this market is ranked. Can we unrank it?

@HedShock sure, I can't provide concrete evidence so I can unrank it based on the guidelines.

predicted YES

How does this resolve if you are a slower driver but still speed? The description isn’t quite aligned with the title

@JimHays oh true, I guess I meant "slower driver to the point I don't intentionally speed anymore". Anyways tbh my driving habits haven't really changed so this point doesn't matter lol

David be like

The chance of hitting an animal or debris on the road is much higher at night, as is the chance of accidentally falling asleep. Speeding during a well-lit day is much safer than doing so at night.

@IsaacKing Is this supported by data? I expect people, either pedestrians or other drivers, to be a much greater danger than animals or debris. I had three accidents in about 20 years of driving and it was always a collision with some other vehicle.

@mariopasquato Anecdotal from years of driving. Nighttime makes it difficult to see as far as my stopping distance, plus deer tend to come out near dusk. Including humans as a type of animal I might be wrong about that part (didn't consider that), but I'm very confident that the "daytime driving is safer for the occupant of the car" thing is true.

predicted NO

I’ll also say I was a very fast driver for years until the physics of the superlinear danger and the ethics of preserving my instrumental value to the world clicked.

Like if it were just my subjective experience at stake, I’d probably accept like 5x more fatality risk if it meant I could drive like I used to because it is fun. But the truth is that my ability to influence the world is thousands of times more valuable than my subjective experience, and the fatality risk probably exceeds 15x more per mile. The fun and time-saved upsides are just rounding errors in comparison.

It took a period of adjustment to get comfortable driving slower. Like staying focused without all the adrenaline was a challenge. I adapted though and now it’s great having a small fraction of the fatality risk I used to.

What kind of statistics or model would convince you to slow down?

@Odoacre I dunno until I see it. Something that ultimately shows the expected value of increasing my travel time by 20% is significantly outweighed by increase chance of an accident on a highway.

predicted YES

@DavidChee sir please slow down what kind of example are you setting for us manifold users

@DavidChee unless you are driving for hundreds of km every day, it seems weird you'd have such a large benefit from occasionally traveling at 15% above the speed limit. Also your calculation should include the chance of fines, not just an accident.

Here's a couple articles you might find interesting, they show that even going above the limit by a lot the actual time you save is not that much.

@Odoacre okay the part about fines is true. I dont see why driving more changes the calculation?

Saving 3 minutes out of 14 is a lot lmao. But also as previously said I dont speed on 30 and 40 zones. Only motorways.

@DavidChee I'm just assuming you only travel on motorways If you travel a long distance. Motorways and rural low traffic roads are really the only place where speeding makes sense anyway since otherwise stuff like traffic lights and intersections will dominate. (As described in one of the links I posted)

predicted NO

If you slow down your driving speeds but continue speeding, how does this resolve?

@NoaNabeshima oh good point, the title and description arent the exact same here.

If I occasionally speed, but generally am consciously driving slower and speeding in less scenarios then it will resolve no