Will I still speed at the end of 2023?
closes Dec 31

Today I had to take a 2-hour speed awareness course because I got caught going slightly over the speed limit (~15%). As u expect wasn't particularly useful. Showing the change in breaking distance at small increments of speed increases was interesting, but nothing new for me. They didn't present any statistics or models which is what actually would have convinced me.

I tend to go pretty fast on the motorway, especially at night if the roads are relatively empty.

In my mind, the risk-reward is worth it of how much time I save relative to my chance of an accident. I'm still quite sensible overall and am never an aggressive driver. I try to be efficient and go fast when it is safe to do so. There are other small considerations such as fuel economy with regards to cost (not a factor IMO) and pollution.

Resolves NO if by my own assessment, I've become a slower driver by the end of the year. I won't bet in this market to remain impartial.

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Odoacre avatar

What kind of statistics or model would convince you to slow down?

DavidChee avatar

@Odoacre I dunno until I see it. Something that ultimately shows the expected value of increasing my travel time by 20% is significantly outweighed by increase chance of an accident on a highway.

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistis predicting YES at 85%

@DavidChee sir please slow down what kind of example are you setting for us manifold users

Odoacre avatar

@DavidChee unless you are driving for hundreds of km every day, it seems weird you'd have such a large benefit from occasionally traveling at 15% above the speed limit. Also your calculation should include the chance of fines, not just an accident.

Here's a couple articles you might find interesting, they show that even going above the limit by a lot the actual time you save is not that much.

DavidChee avatar

@Odoacre okay the part about fines is true. I dont see why driving more changes the calculation?

Saving 3 minutes out of 14 is a lot lmao. But also as previously said I dont speed on 30 and 40 zones. Only motorways.

Odoacre avatar

@DavidChee I'm just assuming you only travel on motorways If you travel a long distance. Motorways and rural low traffic roads are really the only place where speeding makes sense anyway since otherwise stuff like traffic lights and intersections will dominate. (As described in one of the links I posted)

NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshimais predicting NO at 89%

If you slow down your driving speeds but continue speeding, how does this resolve?

DavidChee avatar

@NoaNabeshima oh good point, the title and description arent the exact same here.

If I occasionally speed, but generally am consciously driving slower and speeding in less scenarios then it will resolve no

DavidChee avatar

Btw, if I stop driving sometime before the end of the year...

  • I will consider the last few times I drove before stopping.

  • I will consider if my thoughts on speeding have changed.

Also, it's worth noting I pretty much only speed on motorways which in the UK at least accounts for only 5% of accidents. I pretty much never speed in residential/urban areas bc that is actually kinda dangerous imo.

MichaelBlume avatar
Mike Blume

@DavidChee This is pretty much where I'm at. Speeding on motorways is pretty much fine, speeding in residential/urban areas means you're choosing to endanger the lives of the people around you.

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoebought Ṁ10 ofYES
Wamba Ivanhoe

Not sure if Sir Salty is speeding but since the description says NO means slowing down, I am betting on YES.

DavidChee avatar

LOL not everyone thinking I'm still gonna be speeding

StrayClimb avatar
Reynoldsbought Ṁ5 of YES

Very inconsistent how in the US you can usually go 15 mph over but in other areas of the world the limit is 5 or 10 kph. Someone is definitely wrong

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoe

@StrayClimb In California at least the statute is that speed limits are supposed to be set to the 85th percentile of free flowing traffic in a stretch of road (rounded to the nearest multiple of 5 mph) however jurisdictions are encouraged to try to keep the posted speed limit lower, so there is bias towards rounding downward. I don't recall where the requirement is set forth but my recollection is that all posted speed limit signs need to be supported by a traffic study/speed survey conducted periodically which demonstrates that it is still within 12.4 mph of the 85th percentile of free flowing traffic. It might be every five (5) years? So often even if you are traveling in excess of the posted speed limit, you may not statutorily be in fact speeding if everyone else is traveling at the same speed as you. So there is a possibility that @DavidChee is not speeding, but per the description he will not resolve this NO unless he slows down.

DavidChee avatar

@ShitakiIntaki btw I'm in the UK haha. I believe we tend to have much stricter, unambiguous laws on what qualifies as speeding here.

isocuda avatar

@ShitakiIntaki This follows the Solomon Curve, but progress on speed limits and infrastructure is like pulling teeth. :/

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