Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the month in 2026 with the highest total civilian casualties (killed and injured combined) according to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU). Resolution will be determined by official HRMMU monthly reports published at https://ukraine.ohchr.org/. If multiple months tie for the highest casualty count, the market resolves to the first month chronologically. The market resolves N/A if HRMMU does not publish complete monthly casualty data for 2026.

Background

Civilian casualties in Ukraine were 27 per cent higher from January to October 2025, compared to the same period last year. July 2025 saw 286 civilians killed and 1,388 injured, the highest monthly total since May 2022. Attacks on energy infrastructure intensified in August 2025 and continued through September, with attacks on energy infrastructure heightening risks as civilians head into winter.

Considerations

Casualty figures represent verified reports by HRMMU and may undercount actual casualties. OHCHR considers the number of civilian casualties to be considerably higher than the one the United Nations are able to certify. Winter months may see elevated casualties due to attacks on energy infrastructure, while summer months have historically shown higher casualty counts in 2025.