Both Kalshi and Polymarket have markets on whether the USA will confirm aliens exist in 2025.
10/13: About 8% on Kalshi.
10/13: About 3% on Polymarket.
This market resolves YES if both:
- Kalshi resolves to YES,
- and Polymarket does not resolve YES (Resolves NO, cancelled, voided, ....)
Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Resolution sources: Polymarket and Kalshi.
If a determination cannot be made by Jan 5 2026, this market resolves to NO.
Poster may bet in this market.
1,000Poster actions added here just for transparency:
I bought a bunch of "NO" as soon as I opened the market to shift odds down to 10%, since (if the underlying markets are anywhere near correct) there's at most an 8% chance Kalshi even resolves YES in the first place. Once some other people participated, I sold those "NO" positions to increase liquidity.
Interestingly, this offset some of the cost of market creation - I created the market for 100 mana and got 55 in profit from that buy & sell, so it effectively only cost me 45 to create this market. I added some extra liquidity to the market beyond that.