As of question creation, polymatter has Joe Biden's chance of winning the democratic nomination at 0.75¢ (Buy Yes 75¢) vs manifold's 84%.
Which will be more accurate?
Resolution criteria:
Whichever happens first
Polymarket (yes buy) gets to 84%: Yes
Manifold gets to 75%: No
They converge at 83-80: Yes
They converge at 76-79: No
I will not bet in this market. (But may bet on the manifold market)
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ30 | |
| 2 | Ṁ24 | |
| 3 | Ṁ21 | |
| 4 | Ṁ7 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
This isn't a market about what is more accurate as it is almost impossible to make such a market as you need multiple samples (multiple elections - and using state results doesn't work due to correlated error).
This is mostly likely to resolve to Polymarket > 85. But that is because Biden is heavily favored to win on both markets.
I expect Polymarket and Manifold to not converge until August 2024. And maybe not even then.