https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1njjIRKNELZ4X_nAbo26_pNEgtUWxcG_cRPGvD_OB1ok/pubhtml

I will assess a variety of markets pertaining to the 2024 election, depending on which markets are created and have enough users betting on them.  Markets that will likely be included (provided I can find real-money markets on these questions):

-Presidential primary markets for Reps and Dems

-Who will win particular swing states in the presidential election

-Will the final margin of the election be within a certain range

Any other large markets concerning the election that I can find on both real-money markets and Manifold may also be included.  I will likely try to use Polymarket markets, but due to the changing regulatory landscape of real-money markets, I'm hesitant to commit to one real-money prediction site or another.  If there are multiple large sites running markets, we can select the one with the largest amount of money / users.

I will select multiple time horizons for each question: for the primary markets, obviously longer time horizons will be needed, as they will converge over the course of the primaries.  For most of the other questions, I will likely evaluate at, say, 1 day before, 1 month before, several months before.

I will then generate an R^2 or logloss score for the predictions from Manifold and the real-money markets and compare them.  This will be scored like a prediction contest (which I have some experience administering).

If it is clear that Manifold did better than real-money markets, I will resolve 

If it is clear that Manifold did worse than real-money markets, I will resolve 

If it is truly too close to call (statistical metrics are really trivially different, or different metrics clearly diverge and the final answer is sensitive to small statistical evaluation choices)

If Manifold or real-money markets for some reason change to not be able to address political questions, or world events lead to a cancellation or restructuring of the 2024 election, or some other crazy stuff prevents this question from being answered, I will resolve N/A.

 as I think the criteria is subjective.  I initially thought that Manifold would be likely to beat real-money markets, but I thought about it more and I'm not so confident, and I'm genuinely interested in learning the answer to this question and will attempt to be as impartial as possible.  I will consult with other manifold users on how best to assess and evaluate this question, and will be transparent with how I'm collecting and evaluating the data.

I reserve the right to tweak the description and methodology, especially in the next couple months before any actual data points are revealed, to be receptive of user feedback on the question.