Will the next >=5% single day change in the S&P 500 be an increase?
14
29
1k
2029
36%
chance

increase = YES

decrease = NO

How we define a "single day change":

If it ended on say, tuesday at 1000. And then at end of day weds it is 1100 or higher, or 900 or lower, then the answer is WEDNESDAY. Changes within a single day which aren't the closing price are irrelevant.

We take (end of prior day) => (end of day in question) as the change, so that we treat "overnight changes" as being part of the subsequent day.

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bought Ṁ100 NO

Usually high volatility is bearish.

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 44% order

I am assuming this is not a trick question and it has to be greater than or equal to 5% in magnitude.

@HarrisonNathan yes. Is part of it unclear? I hate trick questions and meaningless resolutions