Will effective personality simulation be available by 2030?
Plus
16
Ṁ10492030
54%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
We'll define personality simulation as effective enough if an employee can ask a manager's simulation a question and generally rely on the answer. E.g. are companies using it in management, are consultants and lawyers using it for preliminary interactions, do companies use personality simulation for R&D before using focus groups with real people
More here: https://every.to/chain-of-thought/llms-can-simulate-personality-that-s-a-big-deal
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@Toby96 I think it would be pretty easy to tell the simulation to not make very consequential decisions
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an AI CEO by 2040?
51% chance
Will an AI simulate human consciousness by 2100?
74% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
35% chance
Will an AI system show emergent capabilities in psychotherapy before 2028 ?
61% chance
Will an autonomous personal AI agent, capable of managing daily affairs, be available by the end of 2024?
12% chance
Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?
37% chance
Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?
43% chance
By 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts?
36% chance
Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025?
59% chance
Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?
34% chance