If the Netherlands has a referendum on leaving the EU, will it favor leaving?
Plus
24
Ṁ9002027
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
One of Geert Wilder's desires if he becomes PM is a referendum on the Netherlands' EU membership.
Wilders’ election program includes calls for a referendum on the Netherlands leaving the European Union, a total halt to accepting asylum-seekers and migrant pushbacks at Dutch borders.
Resolves N/A if such a referendum does not happen before 2027. Resolves YES if over 50% of the popular vote votes for leaving the EU (even if a different threshold is chosen or aggregation is done at some district level). Resolves NO if less than 50% favor leaving. If it's literally exactly equal to the vote, I'll resolve to 50%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Some relevant discussion here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/major-state-exits-eu-before-2027/
Related questions
Related questions
Will any Country Leave the EU Before 2025?
3% chance
Will a referendum on leaving the EU be announced before the next House (Tweede Kamer) elections in the Netherlands?
8% chance
When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?
58% chance
Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2025?
85% chance
Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2027?
17% chance
Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2024?
2% chance
What is the next country to leave European Union:?
Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2026?
24% chance
[Metaculus] Will Norway announce a referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in Sept. 2025?
21% chance
A current EU member state will announce a referendum to leave the EU by the end of 2025
14% chance