Background

SpaceX is expected to develop several Starship variants for different mission profiles. Which will fly in the next three years (by 2028)?

Resolution Criteria

A variant will resolve as YES if at least one flight with the variant occurs before January 1, 2028. A flight is considered complete when the rocket leaves the launch pad, regardless of mission success.

Variant details:

• Tanker: payload area designed to hold a liquid.

• Human Landing System (HLS): Capable of carrying and landing crew. A test article with major systems that are missing or deliberately non-functional (including life support, airlock, etc) won't count. Does not need to have crew on board to resolve.

• Propellant Depot: Configured to transfer and store propellant. Expected design features that separate it from a tanker include extra insulation and cryomanagement systems. Also expected to lack reentry hardware, but this is not a requirement. A non-starship-derived depot doesn't count (e.g. launched as payload instead of as a second stage).

• Pez Dispenser: payload area designed to carry Starlinks

• Chomper: a cargo bay door allowing a large payload to be released

• Mars Cargo: capable of Mars entry, decent, and landing. Design must allow it to deploy payload to Mars surface.

• Mars Crew: like Mars Cargo, but carries crew. Similar resolution criteria as HLS.

• Other: something that doesn't neatly fall under existing categories. For example, a point-to-point variant that doesn't go orbital and lands on legs. Must have a real mission planned, rather than being a test-only stepping-stone towards one of the other variants.

• Update 2025-11-01 (PST): - Chomper: A variant designed to release large payloads into space, regardless of the specific mechanism used to release the payload. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Mars Cargo clarification

  • Must be a feature-complete vehicle: test articles with missing or deliberately non-functional major systems do not count.

  • All necessary systems must be present on the flown vehicle (not split across multiple flights). The hardware does not need to function successfully in flight.

  • Counts if SpaceX states the launched vehicle could feasibly deliver cargo to Mars (minimum-viable approaches like landing without legs are acceptable if so stated).

  • Must launch before Jan 1, 2028.