Will The US be at at war with another country by the end of 2024?
80
1.1k
1.5k
Dec 31
16%
chance

The Criteria for this market to resolve yes would be:

The USA is involved in some kind of combat with one or more foreign powers. (eg China, Russia Etc.)

AND

a high ranking politician (eg president, VP etc) openly comments on and acknowledges an open conflict

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bought Ṁ65 of YES

America is involved in 3 wars currently:

- Intervention in Yemen (seems to be a ceasefire now, progress is being made on a deal)
- Somali Civil War
- Syrian Civil War (The US is supposedly not at war with Syria itself, but ISIS, don't know if that counts, because ISIS is not a country)

Here's some acknowledgements:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/16/us/politics/biden-military-somalia.html

https://web.archive.org/web/20220608195342/https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/08/letter-to-the-speaker-of-the-house-and-president-pro-tempore-of-the-senate-regarding-the-war-powers-report-3/

An 89% chance that America will withdraw seems crazy.

I'll exclude Syria because it probably doesn't count.

And there will likely be a peace deal in Yemen by that point.

But, Somalia in particular will likely go on as long as Biden is in office and maybe longer. Biden has made his intention to deploy troops in Somalia clear. If Trump gets in for 2024, it's possible that the US will end it, but even then before 2024 end is a tight deadline.

predicts NO

@ShadowyZephyr But the US is finghting in support of the Somali government, against rebel groups, so it should be the same deal as Syria - ie. not cause for a YES resolution.

predicts YES

@AngolaMaldives Hmm, that's a fair point, but yt just says WITH another country, it doesn't say they have to be fighting against that country. So being on the same side against another enemy could count?

Can the market creator clarify?

@ShadowyZephyr I went to the Pentagon in the other day and they list all the wars there in a monument. I didn't see any of these wars. The last ones were Iraq and Afghanistan

@MP I don't know anything about this, but they are definitely wars, whether they're listed on some statue or not. On Somalia we are fighting on the government's side, but it's not clear whether that counts or not.