Will DearMoon launch in 2024 (1 year behind scheduled date of 2023)
7
Ṁ50Ṁ600resolved Jun 28
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ32 | |
| 2 | Ṁ11 | |
| 3 | Ṁ7 | |
| 4 | Ṁ3 |
Sort by:
@DAL59 I think this can resolve NO because the mission has been officially canceled: https://spacenews.com/japanese-billionaire-cancels-planned-starship-lunar-mission/
2023 is probably far too ambitious (it's "Elon-time"). But 2024 is probably likely; if nothing else, SpaceX needs to be ready with their Starship-derived lander for NASA's HLS program (which is *so far* on the books for 2025).
For the worth of the paper it's not printed on, I give this 3:1 of *not* being pushed back to 2025.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Luna 26 be launched in 2027 or earlier?
11% chance
Will Artemis III launch (with humans, destination moon) before 2027?
1% chance
Will Starship go to the Moon before 2027?
2% chance
Will Luna 26 be launched in 2027 ?
7% chance
Will the proposed Dubai Moon Replica project be completed before EOY 2035?
20% chance
Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch later than 2025?
96% chance
Will Tianwen-3 launch before 2030?
60% chance
Will SpaceX land on the MOON before Dec 31st 2028?
14% chance
Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch before 2028?
6% chance
Will SpaceX land on the *MOON* by Dec 31st 2027?
2% chance