Will a real Mesa-Optimizer be found in a large AI model by the end of 2024?
4
100Ṁ65
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
N/A

Aug 29, 8:07pm: This resolves as yes if there is general consensus on LW or alignmentforum that a mesa-optimizer has been found, or if https://www.conjecture.dev/ announces its discovery.

AI
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will there be a widely accepted precise definition of mesaoptimizer by 2026?
27% chance
Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?
15% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will AiresAI achieve the SoTA model on benchmarks by the end of the year?
13% chance
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
68% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
26% chance
Limits on AI model size by 2026?
15% chance
Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026?
8% chance
Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?
60% chance
An AI model with 100 trillion parameters exists by the end of 2025?
20% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy