Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
who will win Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors election, District 2 on June 2nd 2026
9
Ṁ100Ṁ1k
Jun 3
18%
Laura Capps
73%
Elijah Mack
9%
other

I will check the official results myself to see who wins. If someone else runs and wins, it results to other.
https://ballotpedia.org/Laura_Karolina_Capps_(Santa_Barbara_County_Board_of_Supervisors_District_2,_California,_candidate_2026)

  • Update 2026-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If no candidate receives over 50% and the race goes to a November runoff, the market will not resolve as "Other." Instead, the creator will either:

    • Wait until November to resolve the market, or

    • Resolve as N/A (refunding all mana), depending on what traders prefer.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ5 YES

Does the market resolve as “other” if neither candidate breaks 50% due to a few hundred write-ins? Then the election would go on to November.

@PolSimNerd It wouldn’t resolve to “other.” If no candidate gets over 50% and the race goes to a November runoff, I would either wait until November to resolve the market, or resolve it as N/A. If I resolve it as N/A, everyone would get their mana refunded and nothing else. It would depend on what people want.

bought Ṁ30 NO

This race will be closer than expected. Not a safe “Low-info race, bet on incumbent” thing. 35+% chance of Capps losing irl, may change by the time you see this comment. Vote accordingly. View Mack’s website and see how he performs in the upcoming debate for SBCS #2.

Comment hidden