If Manifold users were surveyed, which conspiracy theory would receive the highest percentage of people saying they believe it is probably true?
Vote/trade based on what you think the average Manifold user is most likely to believe.
Resolution method:
I will create a public poll after the market closes using the exact options listed in this market.
The market resolves to the conspiracy theory with the highest level of support in the poll.
If the poll is tied for first place, all options tied for first will resolve YES.
You may add more options. However, if an option is partially true or has significant public evidence supporting it, it may resolve N/A and will not be included in the poll.
Update 2026-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The poll used for resolution will be multiple choice (users can select more than one option).
Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The decision of whether an option resolves N/A (due to being partially true or having significant public evidence) will be made by the creator after research. The creator will not resolve an option N/A if they have a bet on it, to avoid bias.
Update 2026-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The option "At least one of the conspiracy theories specifically mentioned at Wikipedia's List of conspiracy theories" is not a valid option and will not be included, as grouped/collective options are not allowed.
Update 2026-05-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The poll for resolution is now live. The market will resolve based on the results of this poll once it concludes.
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People are also trading
@traders poll is up https://manifold.markets/Cvill/what-of-the-following-conspiracy-th?r=Q3ZpbGw
Fell free to make markets around it if you want and post em here I would love to see some
@Cvill I'm in favor, as proposed below (extend market to half the poll's duration), but either option is acceptable.
@4fa i wont extend the market with the poll being open as in the description i added that i would start the poll once the market was closed
@Cvill I don't see a need to extend, we got a nice list already. I'm curious to see the poll results!
@Cvill I take it that this one means the outbreak was started deliberately? Not just the virues created as an experiment and then leaked. So it should be clarified to avoid confusion
@comicstosteal I think this technically only qualifies as a conspiracy if this fact was intentionally hidden (presumably by CCP authorities), rather than just that it happened unbeknownst to popular opinion.
But even then, I'm not sure this should be included; it is an established fact (at least outside China) that China routinely orchestras "conspiracies" of this sort: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_misinformation_by_China
If the theory is that the US or other actors like WHO created it or concealed the release, then yes, I would consider that as a conspiracy. But that's an entirely different question.
@DylanRichardson If it was made in a chinese lab, China would probably know. The conspiracy is that China does know and hid it. And Chinese authorities have tried hard to advocate that it wasn't from a lab.
And I don't see how China silencing medical workers and arresting citizen journalists reporting on sicknesses at the beginning of Covid has any relevance to whether the lab leak/intentional leak is a conspiracy or not.
@comicstosteal I mean that counting this implies counting 1000 other things china has done, including IP theft, monitoring of students studying abroad/Confucian clubs, spies, etc. If you click the wiki link, you'll see that it refers to international CCP COVID 19 origins misinformation, not what you assumed.
@DylanRichardson I see the part I missed. I don't really get what you're saying though.
Why can't a question like "The chinese government uses Confucian clubs to organize and advocate their national interests in foriegn universities" be allowed?
Why is evidence of China engaging in other conspiracies reason that this shouldn't be a question on this market?
N/Aing the question is out of my hands at this point though. I guess if the creator wants to remove it, I won't take issue. I probably just do not understand. And I see that I should have called the question: "China knew Covid originated in their labs, and hid it for PR reasons"
@DylanRichardson it is widely believed that several American researchers & officials, including Anthony Fauci, were involved in supporting the GOF reasearch in question and then helped in covering it up. That should count as a conspiracy. But maybe that part needs to be added to the description?
@benmanns Genuinely thought this was true lol, but very low conviction. Seeing it at 2% is enough for me to now believe it is not true (without any further investigation)
@Gen remember that this isn't meant to be the probability of it being true. It's estimating the probability that this option will get the most "agree" votes on the poll. As long as there's another option that's more popular, the chocolate one will lose. And that could happen simply because ppl haven't heard about this SEO story, even if nobody denies it!
FWIW I also have never heard of this story, and I don't care enough to look into it