If Manifold users were surveyed, which conspiracy theory would receive the highest percentage of people saying they believe it is probably true?

Vote/trade based on what you think the average Manifold user is most likely to believe.

Resolution method:

I will create a public poll after the market closes using the exact options listed in this market.

The market resolves to the conspiracy theory with the highest level of support in the poll.

If the poll is tied for first place, all options tied for first will resolve YES.

You may add more options. However, if an option is partially true or has significant public evidence supporting it, it may resolve N/A and will not be included in the poll.