So annoying

@MachiNi the vaccine release one? Yeah, it's a blackpill... I guess ppl just have no memory

Cannot see how alien technology among us has so many votes, have to wonder if this is some sort of meme.

What boggles me is the popularity of None of the Above. There clearly is a stigma to cynicisem.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Well, "none of the above" and "see results" being the same option might distort the results.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Some of it boils down to specific formulations, e.g. I totally believe insider trading from within Trump administration is happening prior to policy announcements, but "Trump timed policy for insider traders' benefit" is IMHO false (I just don't think he's capable of enough self control AND benefits from insider trading are not that much improved by controlling the specific timing)

@AIBear yeah, and what’s annoying is that people are probably misreading the option—they see insider trading and Trump and think Yes.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I mean the ones that might have legs are the circumcision and the russian one, but I don't move in the right cultural/religious/political circles to know. The moon landing one is impossible, everyone was watching from earth, Russia would have had a fit, none of the video "evidence" really stacks up, so much in the way of resources was spent on it, so much is now public knowledge. No idea about pearl harbour. Popular phone brands probably do dodgy things behind the scenes, big companies, especially in the current climate are always up to something, see Benn Jordan, people like him that actually clamp down on this sort of thing are the best, but the claim as is, seems a bit much. Nobody seems to really know about Epstein. Covid 19 is like the moon landing conspiracy, anti international sentiment, lets blame it on the Chinese and/or Africans because so many who distrust foreigners seem to want to believe that, but the reality is that biotech stuff is more custom for us, but less competitive, than the grey goo scenario that is just microscopic life, and it's really not a weird scenario to just have pandemics sometimes just happen. 9/11 was weird, but better explained by the myriad of protection systems having never been tested, and people not working like machinery, and the terrorists having done some research such as guard rotation times, than by grand conspiracy. It doesn't help that politicians leapt to make it seem conspiratorial by immediately going "see, the industrial military complex has someone to attack now, hooray", it's worth noting that America sometimes misses and attacks the wrong country in conflicts, "oops it was actually the neighbouring country at fault".

@AlanTennant Conversely, the Monsanto one probably is low, simply due to ignorance. It isn't common knowledge, rather than that people have looked at the evidence and made a determination that there is nothing in it.

The top option has 22 answers from 35 participants, but the bar seems to be filled to the fraction of the total answers (22/104). I think this is a bug? @mods

@andri Agreed, that's been bothering me for a while, too. Your mod tag doesn't seem to be working, so here's another one: @mods

@andri isn’t that because we can select multiple options?

@MachiNi it should be this way if we couldn't select multiple options

@andri I don’t know that it should look a particular way

@4fa @andri thanks for bringing this up, I'll add it to my backlog!

@andri it uses some fancy, fairer form of ranked choice point-awarding, i forget what exactly tho.

It looks like the bug is simply dividing by votes instead of dividing by voters. That's equivalent for single choice, but not for multiple choice. Ranked choice is another story.

@ian This poll has cardinal, not ordinal, votes. I think it's broken.

A few clarifications I think should be added, based on discussions in the other market:

On Trump insider trading: must be deliberate choice of timing by Trump himself. Includes trading on prediction markets.

On COVID vaccine timing: includes delaying date of trial releases, which in turn delayed the final vaccine release

On Putin & Ukraine war: this must be an inportant factor in some of Putin's decisions to continue the war

On COVID deliberately created: this means the outbreak of disease was intended

@AhronMaline ty i added it to the description it was like 1 am for me so i just copied and pasted the market answers into the poll

@Cvill I think next time you can duplicate the market and turn it into a poll before you hit "create", then you don't have to copy each answer individually.

I take it that "believe in" means assign >50% probability of being true?

@AhronMaline pretty much that

I don't see any evidence or plausible motivations that Trump personally could have for "timing policy". Insider trading only requires advance knowledge. It's easy.

Plus, I read "policy" as referring to policy - mention markets wouldn't count.

@Cvill sorry, I accidentally voted "COVID-19 was intentionally created", when I meant to vote "COVID-19 was created or modified in a lab". Can you please change my vote?

@100Anonymous i dont think theres a way for me to actually change it on the poll but i will count as you ment it at the end