Description:
There is a secret 3-digit code (one of the listed options).
3 specific traders are selected to get info over 3 days.
They are told who the other two insiders are after 3 days (not what info they have).
They may communicate publicly and/or privately.
How information is distributed:
Day 1: One insider is told the first digit
Day 2: A different insider is told the second digit
Day 3: The last insider is told the third digit
Each piece of information is 100% true.
What insiders can do:
After receiving their information, insiders may:
Tell the truth
Lie
Bluff
Coordinate with the other insiders,
Try to manipulate market prices for profit
Any combination of insiders (especially 2 working together) may be able to reconstruct the full code.
What traders must do:
Watch insider statements and behavior.
Decide who is credible.
Account for possible coordination or deception.
Trade based on both information and psychology.
Important notes:
Insiders know who each other are but do not know what info each other has
Not all statements will be truthful
The market may be influenced by both real info and manipulation
Resolution:
The market resolves to the actual pre-selected 3-digit code.
I wont bet on this market
the market will resolve in 2 weeks unless I decide to extend it for any reason
Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The first insider receives their digit on Day 2 of the market (not Day 1). The information distribution schedule is offset by one day from the market's start.
1,000People are also trading
@Cvill there is no way for a non-insider to play, and two insiders can already figure out the goal. Can you create a version of this with more codes? I'll sponsor the liquidity if you want to; just tell me the amount.
@100Anonymous Couldn't a non-insider lie and make mana that way? The insiders also aren't explicitly incentivized to just trade their info immediately into the market. Getting a read on how others trade on the market or comment is a skill and trading based on whether you believe someone is lying or not is something a non insider can profit off of. I think there's a lot of game theory here even if you don't have insider info.
@100Anonymous Zeolite is right about how non-insiders can still make mana. Also, making this but for, let’s say, 10 people getting info would increase the number of codes a lot and would probably be nearly impossible to do. I can design a system where everyone can get info to figure out the code, but it would be different rules and different information on what they get, e.g., instead of getting a number, they get something like “the 3rd number is odd."
@Zeolite I think the only problem is that a non-insider can't lie to other insiders as they know who each other are but don't know what info they have
@Cvill Thats true. Insiders can also lie to each other or not give their info at all so it might be that the insiders all have wrong info at some point though. They obviously will know its a 50/50 split but that might be it. Non insiders can lie to other non insiders though. They can also attempt to influence how the insiders play.