Will Western Yilgarn's cobalt discoveries impact global supply by March 22, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ20Mar 22
59%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Western Yilgarn's cobalt discoveries at the Ida Holmes Junction project in Western Australia contribute at least 1% to the global cobalt supply by March 22, 2026. The resolution will be based on official production reports from Western Yilgarn and global supply data from the USGS or equivalent authoritative sources. This threshold matters because new high-grade cobalt discoveries could alter supply dynamics in the critical minerals market, especially given the strategic importance of cobalt in various industries. The current global mine production is estimated at 310,000 tonnes for 2025, and Western Yilgarn's impact would need to be at least 3,100 tonnes to meet the threshold.
Source: Article
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the DRC's copper supply capacity exceed 1.5 million tonnes annually by 2027 due to US mineral deals?
63% chance
Will Nornickel's palladium production fall below 2.3 million ounces by May 5, 2026?
46% chance
Will the US graphite supply chain shift exceed 50 on a scale of 1-100 by March 22, 2026?
57% chance
Will the platinum supply deficit exceed 26 metric tonnes in 2025 according to WPIC?
53% chance
Will Rautomead's continuous casting technology impact copper supply dynamics by March 22, 2026?
37% chance
Will global platinum availability fall below 2 million ounces by March 4, 2026, due to South African mine supply issues?
23% chance
Will Cameco 2026 uranium production (attributable share) exceed 27.5M lbs U3O8?
57% chance
Will China's electrolytic cobalt output recover to 800 tonnes by March 2026?
17% chance
Will Eldorado Gold's acquisition result in a copper supply increase by May 11, 2026?
51% chance
Will Project Vault's stockpile cause U.S. lithium prices to fall below $18/kg by March 22, 2026?
43% chance