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Will stainless steel prices exceed 3500 yuan per tonne on April 1, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ200
Apr 1
90%
chance

Resolves YES if the average stainless steel price, as reported by major Chinese stainless steel market price indexes (e.g., Mysteel or SteelHome), exceeds 3500 yuan per tonne on April 1, 2026. This threshold reflects the price impact from Indonesia's nickel ore quota cuts which have tightened nickel feedstock supply, a key input for stainless steel production. The market evaluates the spot or published benchmark price on the settlement date, not an average over a period. Price data from authoritative stainless steel price reporting agencies will be used for resolution. This market captures cost pressures and supply constraints in the nickel-dependent stainless steel sector driven by Indonesian policy changes.

Indonesia's reduction in nickel ore RKAB quota has caused stainless steel producers to raise their prices, indicating potential cost pressures and supply constraints affecting nickel-dependent sectors.

Source: Article

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