This market resolves YES if Sm metal (Western) spot price exceeds 200 USD/kg on June 30, 2026.
What is being measured: Samarium metal (Sm, 99%+ purity) spot price in the Western market (ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to June 30, 2026.
YES if: Western Sm metal spot price >= 200 USD/kg on June 30, 2026 NO if: Western Sm metal spot price < 200 USD/kg on June 30, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Argus REE samarium metal — Western assessment
Asian Metal — samarium metal Western or ex-China prices
Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm metal Western spot
SMM samarium metal Western assessment
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ9 |
Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 9.77 USD/kg
Rationale: All available industrial benchmarks for samarium metal (Sm) spot price as of June 30, 2026, including the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and Northeast Asia indices, report prices around $9.77/kg, far below the $200/kg threshold. No Western spot price was published for the date, but there is no evidence of a significant premium that would bring the price anywhere near $200/kg. The criteria require the price to exceed $200/kg, which is not supported by any available data.
Sources read: