This market tracks Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict.

Measurement date: May 31, 2026

Resolution:

• YES if: Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict ≥ 20 million barrels/day on 2026-05-31

• NO if: Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict < 20 million barrels/day on 2026-05-31

International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC reports

The current military conflict between US-Israeli forces and Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing global crude supply significantly, which is critical given the present geopolitical tensions.

Rationale: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to military conflict severely impacts global crude supply by 15-20%, marking one of the largest single supply shocks in recent history, hence, it is crucial for anticipating oil price dynamics.

Source: Article