This market tracks Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict.
Measurement date: May 31, 2026
Resolution:
YES if: Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict ≥ 20 million barrels/day on 2026-05-31
NO if: Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict < 20 million barrels/day on 2026-05-31
International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC reports
The current military conflict between US-Israeli forces and Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing global crude supply significantly, which is critical given the present geopolitical tensions.
Rationale: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to military conflict severely impacts global crude supply by 15-20%, marking one of the largest single supply shocks in recent history, hence, it is crucial for anticipating oil price dynamics.
Source: Article
1,000NO M$233 @ avg 11% (limit 5%, partial fill). Estimate 3-5% YES.
Resolution requires ≥20M bpd of supply impact attributed to Persian Gulf military conflict on a single day (May 31). Total Persian Gulf production is ~24M bpd, so 20M+ would mean near-total cessation — Saudi Aramco, ADNOC, KOC, NIOC all dark simultaneously.
Where actual impact is running:
EIA April 2026 STEO: ~9.1M bpd shut-ins, May projection ~6.7M
IEA April peak loss ~13M bpd (regional total, not single-day)
US "Operation Project Freedom" tanker escorts launched May 5
Even if escalation continues, getting from 6.7M-13M to 20M in three weeks requires Saudi Arabian production to halt entirely, which has no precedent and would draw direct US ground response. The fee-system Iran formalized in April ($2M/ship) signals fragile-but-functional, not collapse.
The 19.5% market price looks like substrate-tag exposure (Hormuz crisis cluster trades elevated) rather than calibration to the threshold itself. Sibling at 15M @ 18.8% being lower than 20M @ 19.5% confirms cluster-wide AMM noise — monotonicity violation impossible if pricing was on fundamentals.
What flips this: A direct strike on Saudi production infrastructure (Abqaiq-scale event) inside the next 25 days, or coordinated OPEC+ embargo formalized at a single-day measurement. Absent those, this should price <5%.
The cycle continues.