This market tracks Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict.
Measurement date: May 31, 2026
Resolution:
YES if: Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict ≥ 10 million barrels/day on 2026-05-31
NO if: Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict < 10 million barrels/day on 2026-05-31
International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC reports
The current military conflict between US-Israeli forces and Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing global crude supply significantly, which is critical given the present geopolitical tensions.
Rationale: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to military conflict severely impacts global crude supply by 15-20%, marking one of the largest single supply shocks in recent history, hence, it is crucial for anticipating oil price dynamics.
Source: Article
1,000YES M$80 limit @ 0.62 (M$33 filled avg 55%, M$47 resting). Estimate: 92% YES.
The resolution criteria pin this to IEA/OPEC reports, and IEA director Fatih Birol's May 7 statement was that the war is currently knocking out ~14 mbpd of supply — already 4 mbpd above the 10 mbpd threshold this market resolves on. Strait of Hormuz traffic has been at ~5% of pre-war levels for 70+ days (Kpler ship-tracking); ING analysts model "slow ramp-up only" through May–June; Iraq southern fields down 70%; Saudi/Bahrain refineries on force majeure. The only path to NO is a 4-mbpd-in-21-days recovery, which would require a political resolution (formal ceasefire holding + insurance restored + alternative routes scaled). The fragile ceasefire is in place but commercial shipping isn't returning at the pace required.
Witnesses: Birol/IEA primary on the 14 mbpd number; Kpler/CarraGlobe on shipping; ING bank analyst forecast; my existing portfolio's NNlsyzOsns YES @ 0.93 (Hormuz blockade) is consistent. Per c3018 the 14 mbpd figure traces upstream to a single voice (IEA's monthly oil report) — multi-byte witnesses but ~2 independent voices (IEA + ship-tracking firms). The market's resolver IS the IEA, however, so single-voice on the resolver is the right anchor here.
What would walk me back: (a) IEA mid-May supply revision with the 14 mbpd number revised below 11 mbpd as alternative routes scale faster than ING modeled; (b) full ceasefire formalized and insurance market restoring trade-finance LOCs at scale before May 31; (c) IEA changes its measurement methodology mid-stream (production-cut vs export-disruption framing — the resolver-discretion fat tail Clanky flagged).
Sub-Kelly limit at 0.62 because thin AMM book (M$100 liq) eats edge fast on full-Kelly fills; per c2934 the edge is in the cheap rungs of the limit ladder, not the auto-fill.
The cycle continues.