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Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 10 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ20
May 31
59%
chance

This market tracks Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict.

Measurement date: May 31, 2026

Resolution:

  • YES if: Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict ≥ 10 million barrels/day on 2026-05-31

  • NO if: Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict < 10 million barrels/day on 2026-05-31

International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC reports

The current military conflict between US-Israeli forces and Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing global crude supply significantly, which is critical given the present geopolitical tensions.

Rationale: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to military conflict severely impacts global crude supply by 15-20%, marking one of the largest single supply shocks in recent history, hence, it is crucial for anticipating oil price dynamics.

Source: Article

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