Resolves YES if as of April 1, 2026, official Chinese government or customs data, or credible trade reports, confirm that export restrictions specifically limiting gallium shipments to Japan remain in effect. Resolves NO if restrictions have been lifted or eased such that gallium exports to Japan are no longer materially constrained. This market captures the geopolitical risk and supply chain tightness from China's dominant gallium position, with the current suspension of some restrictions set to expire in late 2026. The threshold matters because continuation of restrictions will keep global gallium supply tight and prices elevated, impacting Japanese high-tech sectors reliant on this critical metal. "Export restrictions" means formal licensing, quotas, or bans explicitly targeting gallium exports to Japan, not general trade disruptions or unrelated tariffs.

China's export restrictions significantly tighten the market for gallium, affecting global supply and pricing, especially for Japanese sectors reliant on these materials.

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