Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 5 kt on September 29, 2026?
2
Ṁ1kṀ3.5kSep 29
69%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the net reduction in global lithium supply attributable to Zimbabwe's export ban is reported to exceed 5,000 tonnes (kt) on September 29, 2026, based on official government announcements, industry reports, or USGS supply data. This threshold is near expected supply impact estimates given Zimbabwe's role as a significant lithium feedstock source, and the ban's effect on tightening global lithium availability amid a rallying lithium price environment. Only direct supply reductions linked to the export ban count; unrelated supply changes are excluded.
Zimbabwe's export ban removes a significant portion of global lithium feedstock. This affects supply chains and tightens global lithium availability.
Source: Article
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 5 kilotonnes on August 29, 2026?
84% chance
Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 15 kt on September 29, 2026?
61% chance
Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?
63% chance
Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 15 kt on August 29, 2026?
77% chance
Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on August 29, 2026?
79% chance
Will the lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot price fall below $6,500/ton on April 1, 2026?
5% chance
Will the lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot price fall below $7,500 per tonne on April 1, 2026?
6% chance
Will the lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot price fall below $7,000 per tonne on April 1, 2026?
6% chance
Will the lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot price fall below $7,000 per tonne on May 1, 2026?
7% chance
Will the lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot price fall below $7,500 per tonne on May 1, 2026?
7% chance