Resolves YES if authoritative global lithium supply data (e.g., USGS, industry reports) indicate that the net reduction in lithium supply attributable to Zimbabwe's export ban on lithium concentrates exceeds 15,000 tonnes on August 29, 2026. This includes all lithium supply shortfalls caused by halted exports of spodumene concentrate from Zimbabwe, accounting for any compensating supply increases elsewhere. The threshold reflects roughly half of Zimbabwe's 2025 spodumene concentrate exports (~30 kt Li content estimated), balancing uncertainty about substitution and stockpiling. The export ban was implemented early 2026 to promote local processing, creating significant supply chain disruption. Only reductions directly linked to the export ban count; unrelated supply changes do not affect resolution.

Zimbabwe's export ban removes a significant portion of global lithium feedstock. This affects supply chains and tightens global lithium availability.

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