Resolves YES if by April 1, 2026, official Chinese government or customs announcements confirm that export restrictions on gallium specifically affecting shipments to Japan remain in place. Resolution is based on authoritative statements from China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) or customs data reflecting export licensing policies. Given China's near-monopoly on gallium production and the ongoing geopolitical tensions with Japan, continuation of these restrictions would sustain supply tightness and price divergence. The market excludes military-use bans suspended until Nov 27, 2026, focusing solely on export licensing restrictions impacting civilian/commercial gallium flows to Japan.

China's export restrictions significantly tighten the market for gallium, affecting global supply and pricing, especially for Japanese sectors reliant on these materials.

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