Resolution criteria

The market resolves based on the automation rate reported on the Remote Labor Index leaderboard, defined as the percentage of projects where an AI's deliverable is judged at least as good as the human standard—whether a "reasonable client" would accept the work. The market resolves to the year in which the RLI automation rate first reaches or exceeds 80%, as reported on the official leaderboard at https://scale.com/leaderboard/rli. If the automation rate never reaches 80% by the end of 2030, the market resolves to "2030 or later."

Background

The Remote Labor Index is a benchmark that empirically measures the capability of AI agents to perform real-world, economically valuable remote work by evaluating AI agents on a broad, multi-sector collection of end-to-end projects sourced from professional freelance platforms, providing a direct comparison of AI agent performance against professional human-produced deliverables. As of the latest evaluation, the maximum automation rate across frontier AI agent frameworks is 2.5% on RLI projects. Each project represents a complete, self-contained, economically valuable task requiring a median of around 11.5 hours for a human professional to complete with a median value of $200.

Considerations

The RLI is broad but does not represent the entire digital economy, explicitly excluding projects that require direct client interaction (e.g., customer service, tutoring), physical labor, or long-term evaluation (e.g., SEO). Reaching 80% automation would represent a 32x improvement from current performance, requiring substantial advances in AI agent reliability, multi-step reasoning, and complex tool use.