The Yangtze Giant Softshell Turtle is a species of turtle native to southern China and northern Vietnam. The last known female died in April 2023, leaving only two known males.
This market will resolve YES if the Yangtze Giant Softshell Turtle is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not declared extinct by the IUCN in 2100.
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yangtze_giant_softshell_turtle
IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Assessment: Critically endangered
https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/39621/2931537
Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.
For comparison, here the market about the wild extinction risk, excluding captive individuals:
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I have asked ChatGPT and Gemini for an assessment of the wild extinction risk and complete extinction risk of the Yangtze Giant Softshell Turtle. Here are the answers and the prompt.
Answer ChatGPT
Estimated Risks by 2100
Wild extinction risk: 99.20%
Complete extinction risk (including captive individuals): 98.90%
Reasoning
The Yangtze giant softshell turtle is widely regarded as the world’s rarest turtle. As of the last confirmed data, only a few individuals remain globally, with at most one or two possibly surviving in the wild in Vietnam and none confirmed in China. Reproduction has failed repeatedly in captivity, including the death of the last known female in China in 2019. Ongoing threats—habitat degradation, dam construction, pollution, and extremely low mate availability—create severe demographic and genetic bottlenecks. Even if a wild pair exists, aging individuals and Allee effects make recovery improbable. Captive breeding breakthroughs are possible but unlikely, keeping total extinction risk extremely high.
Answer Gemini
The survival of the Yangtze Giant Softshell Turtle (Rafetus swinhoei) is currently one of the most precarious conservation challenges in the world. As of 2026, the species is functionally extinct.
Extinction Risk Estimates
Wild Extinction Risk
99.10%
Complete Extinction Risk
98.85%
Reasoning
The outlook for Rafetus swinhoei is exceptionally grim due to a combination of biological and environmental factors:
Functionally Extinct Status: Following the death of the last known wild female in Dong Mo Lake in April 2023, there are no confirmed fertile females remaining. The global population consists of only two or three confirmed individuals—all likely male or of unconfirmed sex—including one elderly male in Suzhou Zoo.
Aging Population: Known individuals are estimated to be over 100 years old. Even if an undiscovered female is found via eDNA (which has shown some potential in Xuan Khanh Lake), the window for natural or assisted reproduction is closing rapidly as these animals reach the end of their natural lifespans.
Failed Breeding History: Over a decade of artificial insemination and natural breeding attempts in China yielded no viable offspring, often due to the physical infirmity of the captive male.
Habitat Degradation: The Yangtze and Red River systems remain heavily impacted by dam construction, pollution, and historical over-harvesting, making the "wild" environment increasingly hostile to any surviving elusive individuals.
The slightly lower percentage for "Complete Extinction" accounts for the remote, "hail-mary" possibility that a female is discovered and advanced cloning or genomic technologies—not currently viable for this species—become available before the last individual perishes.
Prompt:
Evaluate the Yangtze Giant Softshell Turtle (Rafetus swinhoei), a species that is classified as “Critically Endangered” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2018).
Firstly, estimate the risk of the wild population becoming extinct by 2100. Wild Extinction means the death of the last wild individual, excluding captive animals. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction in the wild and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current wild population, ongoing threats, and habitat trends.
Secondly, estimate the risk of complete extinction by 2100. Complete Extinction means the death of the last individual, including wild and captive animals. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current population (wild and captive), ongoing threats, and habitat trends.
Prediction markets on Manifold Markets have estimated the wild extinction risk of the species by 2100 at 98.4%, the complete extinction risk at 98.3%.
In about 100 words, explain your reasoning.