Will the wild population of the Vaquita (Phocoena sinus) become extinct by 2100?
2
100Ṁ3752100
96%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market focuses on the extinction risk of the wild population of the Vaquita, a species that was classified as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List in 2022. It will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the wild population is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the wild population of the Vaquita persists.
For more information about the species, see:
For comparison, here the market about full extinction risk, including potential captive individuals:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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