MANIFOLD
Will the wild population of Saola (Pseudoryx nghetinhensis) become Extinct by 2100?
1
Ṁ500Ṁ80
2099
60%
chance

This market focuses on the extinction risk of the wild population of the Saola, a bovid native to the Annamite Range in Laos and Vietnam. The species is classified as “Critically Endangered” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2015). The last confirmed sighting of an animal was in 2013, and there are no captive individuals as of 2026. The market will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the wild population is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the wild population of the species persists.

For more information about the species, see:

IUCN Red List assessment

Wikipedia

Observations on iNaturalist

For comparison, here the market about the complete extinction risk, including captive individuals:

Market context
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