Will the Asian Elephant (Elephas maximus) become extinct by 2100?

Question

This market is about the extinction risk of the Asian Elephant species by 2100. The market will resolve YES if the Asian Elephant becomes extinct by 2100, or earlier. It will resolve NO if the species does not become extinct before 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_elephant

IUCN assessment

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/7140/45818198

For comparison, here the market about the wild extinction risk, excluding captive individuals:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-wild-population-of-the-asi)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 9% chance (12 traders, as of Sep 17, 2025).