Will the Lion (Panthera leo) become extinct in the current century? | Manifold

Will the Lion (Panthera leo) become extinct in the current century?

15

500Ṁ770

2099

16%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market is about the extinction risk of the Lion species in the current century, regardless of subspecies.This market will resolve YES if the Lion is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion

IUCN red list of threatened species

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/15951/266696959

For comparison here the market about the wild extinction risk of the species:

Extinction Risk

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Here a first comparison of the extinction risk of 20 species, for which I have set up markets yesterday and today. I have classified them in ten risk classes.

0-9%: Ultra Low Risk

None

10-19%: Low Risk

None

20-29%: Minor Risk

30-39%: Moderate Risk

Bonobo, Black Rhinoceros, Lion

40-49%: Substantial Risk

White Rhinoceros, Asian Elephant, African Savanna Elephant, Western Gorilla, Tiger, Leopard, Jaguar

50-59%: Significant Risk

Indian Rhinoceros, African Forest Elephant, Sumatran Orangutan, Eastern Gorilla, Snow Leopard

60-69%: High Risk

Tapanuli Orangutan, Bornean Orangutan

70-79%: Severe Risk

Sumatran Rhinoceros

80-89%: Critical Risk

Javan Rhinoceros

90-100%: Ultra High Risk

None

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