Will the Desert Rain Frog (Breviceps macrops) become extinct in the current century?
Will the Desert Rain Frog (Breviceps macrops) become extinct in the current century?
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The Desert Rain Frog is a species of frog found in Namibia and South Africa. It lives in the narrow strip of sandy shores between the sea and the sand dunes. This market will resolve YES if the Desert Rain Frog is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not declared extinct by the IUCN in 2100.
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desert_rain_frog
IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Assessment: Near Threatened
https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/3070/2794989
Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.
For comparisons with other species, you can find here more markets about species extinction risks:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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